Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 1.963935 2.056719 2.155341 2.268679 2.396256 2.536562 2.704178
2025-10-26 1.862258 1.981313 2.112632 2.270082 2.456404 2.673563 2.951844
2025-11-02 1.769224 1.901123 2.050093 2.233806 2.458874 2.732537 3.102892
2025-11-09 1.707057 1.849306 2.013153 2.220115 2.481527 2.811971 3.283439
2025-11-16 1.656947 1.807183 1.983102 2.209936 2.504280 2.889838 3.468740
2025-11-23 1.612560 1.768691 1.954062 2.197337 2.520588 2.957935 3.647381
2025-11-30 1.585196 1.748766 1.945780 2.209202 2.568321 3.072125 3.913321
2025-12-07 1.530509 1.692827 1.889603 2.154965 2.521084 3.043697 3.941702
2025-12-14 1.498710 1.663816 1.865846 2.141689 2.529035 3.096557 4.116317
2025-12-21 1.465676 1.631933 1.836887 2.119528 2.522182 3.125158 4.251690
2025-12-28 1.454440 1.626829 1.841816 2.143010 2.582175 3.264039 4.627556
2026-01-04 1.449826 1.629696 1.856864 2.180740 2.665596 3.451199 5.163810
2026-01-11 1.426195 1.608145 1.839792 2.173804 2.682596 3.531311 5.502358
2026-01-18 1.407867 1.592729 1.830100 2.176549 2.714421 3.641551 5.965419
2026-01-25 1.377912 1.561239 1.797583 2.144515 2.688060 3.640128 6.122663
2026-02-01 1.356966 1.540955 1.779541 2.132732 2.693621 3.700279 6.495690
2026-02-08 1.338256 1.523067 1.764104 2.123934 2.703233 3.769424 6.942872
2026-02-15 1.319720 1.504896 1.747646 2.112762 2.707868 3.828917 7.402443
2026-02-22 1.309807 1.497842 1.746189 2.123888 2.751013 3.975541 8.358103
2026-03-01 1.280045 1.463605 1.705954 2.074331 2.685420 3.876492 8.113271
2026-03-08 1.263884 1.447313 1.690459 2.062261 2.685292 3.924246 8.653542
2026-03-15 1.245689 1.427919 1.670122 2.041971 2.669361 3.934342 9.018931
2026-03-22 1.241818 1.427708 1.676728 2.063629 2.729998 4.132169 10.872325